金正日身后：半岛统一代价几何？

semico_ljj

金正日身后：半岛统一代价几何？

Kim Jong-il Dies: What Price for Korean Reunification?

金正日身后：半岛统一代价几何？

Analysis By PALASH R. GHOSH

分析，帕拉什·R·皋石

The sudden death of former North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il has raised speculation that his demise may serve as the first step towards the re-unification of North and South Korea -- bitter enemies for more than 60 years.

朝鲜的卓越领袖溘然长逝（注：诸君可对照原文，捉摸原作意图，译者与作者观点不尽相同），引发外界猜想：他的身故会是他一直致力推动的半岛上北南两个彼此仇视逾六十年的国家统一新篇章的开始吗？（注：同上）

However, such a measure would not only face massive political obstacles, but also economic demands that might make the formation of ‘one Korea’ almost impossible.

不过，统一不仅会面临巨大的政治阻力，更有让“一个高丽”【1】的诞生几乎难以实现的经济阻力。

Sukhy Ubhi, the Asia economist at Capital Economist in London, said that in the event the North Korean regime collapses, the cost of re-unification for South Korea would be “considerably greater” than it was for West Germany in 1989.

伦敦的资本经济学人的亚洲经济专家苏克伊·乌比称如果朝鲜政权崩溃，韩国统一半岛的成本会比西德统一1989年德国时“高出相当多”。

“The key issue is whether the change of leadership [in Pyongyang] will accelerate reform, or increase the risk of a total economic collapse that ultimately leads to a forced re-unification with the South, or simply maintains the status quo,” he wrote.

他写道：“关键是平壤的领导层变动将加速改革，增加导致南方主导统一的经济大崩溃的危险，还是简单地维持现状。”

“[The apparent successor] Kim Jong-un is an unknown quantity, but is probably too young and weak to make much change quickly.”

“目前对金正恩知之甚少，但要实施迅速的变革他可能太年轻。”

Realistically, the only thing that would prompt a fall in the North Korean government would be a total economic collapse – an outcome that is not at all fanciful. Indeed, Kim Jong-il appeared to have ruled over a country wracked by poverty and starvation.

现实上，唯一可能导致朝鲜政府垮台的是经济大崩溃——这并非全无可能。金正日统治的这个国家早就因为贫困和饥饿而显得破败了。

The Bank of Korea estimated that GDP in the North Korea dropped by 0.5 percent last year – the fourth year of economic shrinkage in the past five years.

韩国银行估算朝鲜的国民生产总值（GDP）去年下降了0.5%，这是五年来第四度经济萎缩。

“Two million people died in the North’s famine in the mid-1990s and reports of starvation have resurfaced more recently,” Ubhi noted.

乌比指出：“在上世纪九十年代中期的朝鲜大饥荒中有两百万人丧生，最近又有饥荒的报道。”

“Surveys show that South Korea’s indebted households have little appetite for the costs they would bear in the event of re-unification.”

“调查显示韩国的贫困家庭由于统一需要付出的代价对北方兴致缺缺。”

Ubhi also made a comparison to Syria. When Hafez Assad died in 2000, some analysts speculated that his successor, son Bashar, might rule the country with a “lighter touch.” The brutality by the Syrian government against protesters over the past eight months would appear to contradict such hopes.

乌比还拿叙利亚和朝鲜做了个比较。哈菲兹·阿萨德2000年去世时，分析人士猜测他的儿子巴沙尔可能以“柔和些的手法”来治理国家。叙利亚政府在过去8个月中血腥镇压抗议者的事实显然已经唤醒了这些梦想者（注：单方观点）。

However, re-unification of the Korean peninsula could impart some positive benefits as well, at least in the longer-term, Ubhi adds.

不过，乌比补充说，半岛的统一也会带来一些益处，至少长远说来如此。

“The North’s 23-million population is relatively young, which would improve South Korea’s poor demographic outlook,” he said.

他说：“北方的两千三百万人口年龄较轻，这可以改善南方不佳的人口构成。”

“In addition, South Korea’s dependence on importing raw materials would be reduced given that most of the peninsula’s natural resources lie in the North. Defense expenditure would fall.”

“此外，南方对进口原材料的依赖也可以由北方的自然资源缓解。防务支出会下降。”

The most high-profile reunification in recent years was probably the combination of West and East Germany in 1989. Ubhi cautions, however, that that European reconciliation would imply huge immediate costs for South Korea.

近年最引人注目的统一莫过于东西两德1989年的统一。不过，乌比警告说欧洲的这个先例会给韩国带来巨大的近期代价。

“The gulf between the two Koreas is far greater than that between West and East Germany ahead of their reunification,” he stated.

他说：“韩国和朝鲜之间的差异远大于西德和东德在统一前的差异。”

“Per capita income levels in West Germany were three times those in the East, whereas in South Korea they are 19 times the level of the North.”

“当时西德的人均收入是东德的三倍，而韩国人均收入则是朝鲜的19倍。”

Ubhi added: “The South Korean government estimates the cost of rebuilding the North’s economy and preventing mass migration into its borders following re-unification at around $1-trillion. This is roughly the South’s annual GDP and is proportionally two or three times most estimates of the cost to West Germany of its re-unification with the East.”

他还说：“韩国政府估计重建朝鲜经济，避免统一后人口大量流向南方的成本大约是一万亿美元。这大致相当于韩国的年均GDP，比例是西德在统一中付出的成本的两三倍。”

Similarly, James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute, wrote: “North Korea’s per capita income is less than 5 percent of the South’s. Each year the dollar value of South Korea’s GDP expansion equals the entire North Korean economy. The North’s population is half the South’s and rising thanks to a high birth rate. North and South also barely trade with each other.”

美国企业研究所的詹姆斯·佩特科克斯也有类似观点，他写道：“朝鲜的人均收入不及韩国的5%。韩国的GDP增量相当于朝鲜的经济总量。由于高生育率的影响，北方人口已经是南方人口的一半。北南双方基本没有贸易往来。”

Pethokoukis also spelled out the grim financial costs of a potential reunification.

佩特科克斯还计算了统一可怕的经济成本。

“More than a dozen reports by governments, academics and investment banks in recent years have attempted to estimate the cost of Korean unification,” he wrote.

他写道：“各个政府，学术机构和投资银行近年发表了十余份估计半岛统一成本的报告。”

“At the low end, the Rand Corporation estimates $50 billion. But that assumes only a doubling of Northern incomes from current levels, which would leave incomes in the North at less than 10% of the South. At the high end, Credit Suisse estimated last year that unification would cost $1.5 trillion, but with North Korean incomes rising to only 60% of those in the South. I estimate that raising Northern incomes to 80% of Southern levels -- which would likely be a political necessity -- would cost anywhere from $2 trillion to $5 trillion, spread out over 30 years. That would work out to at least $40,000 per capita if distributed solely among South Koreans.”

“最少的是兰德公司估算的500亿美元，他们假定北方收入翻番，这样北方的收入不到南方的10%。最多的是瑞士信贷去年估计的一万五千亿美元，这笔投入可以让北方收入达到南方收入的60%。我估计为了政治上可以接受，北方收入应该达到南方收入的80%，需要的资金在两万亿到五万亿美元，耗时超过三十年。分摊到每个韩国人头上的数字是至少四万美元。”

In addition, China also hovers over this ongoing drama – and its shadow might make re-unification difficult.

此外，在这出已经上演的剧目中中国的态度还在摇摆，这让统一更加艰难。

“China has strong reasons to avoid either the collapse of the North Korean economy or the emergence of a unified pro-Western state on its borders, and so will do what it can to maintain stability via food aid and other support,” Ubhi said.

乌比说：“中国有充分的理由阻止朝鲜经济崩溃和边境上出现一个亲西方的统一高丽，因而它会尽其所能通过食物援助和其它手段维持稳定。”

Regarding the near-term, Ubhi proposed that the “uncomfortable status quo” will continue as is.

乌比判断，在短期朝鲜“艰苦的现状”仍将继续。

****

1.  因为南方称韩国，北方称朝鲜，所以用“高丽”来指整个半岛。