货币市场：风暴前的安静 | 经济学人

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货币市场：风暴前的安静 | 经济学人FOR all the talk of "currency wars", the foreign exchange markets have been remarkably calm so far in 2012. But as Simon Derrick, the currency analyst at Bank of New York Mellon remarks, things have been rather too calm. It is a bit like that bit in an old western when the cavalry is riding through hostile territory. Just as the captain remarks "I don't like it, it's too quiet.", some hapless private gets an arrow though his chest.

Currency markets It's too quiet

货币市场——风暴前的安静

Apr 12th 2012, 16:26 by Buttonwood

2012年4月12日，Buttonwood截稿于16:26。

FOR all the talk of "currency wars", the foreign exchange markets have been remarkably calm so far in 2012. But as Simon Derrick, the currency analyst at Bank of New York Mellon remarks, things have been rather too calm. It is a bit like that bit in an old western when the cavalry is riding through hostile territory. Just as the captain remarks "I don't like it, it's too quiet.", some hapless private gets an arrow though his chest.

尽管舆论界认为即将发生“货币战争”，从2012年开年迄今，外汇市场却一直表现的非常平静。但纽约梅隆银行的货币分析师——西蒙-德里克评论说，市场有些过分平静了，这看起来有点像在古老的西方世界里，骑兵们正屏气凝神的驶过敌人的领地，骑兵队长担忧说，“我不喜欢这儿，太安静了。”，话音刚落，倒霉的士兵就被冷箭贯胸而入。

                               
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来自haver分析

Take a look at the graphs. The flattest line is the dollar/yuan (or renminbi) rate and the chinese have indicated that they're not likely to allow it to rise much in the near future. This creates some risk in a Presidential election year esepcially as Mitt Romney has declared that in his first day in office he will declare China a currency manipulator (it will be a packed day by all accounts). Of course, he's right but whether it is wise to pick a fight with your top creditor is another matter.

如图所示。最平滑的那条线是美元/人民币汇率，中国政府坚称他们不会允许其汇率上升太多。这将会对（美国的）总统选举换届产生一些影响，特别是增加（候选人）罗姆尼的风险，因为他曾声称他一旦上任就会宣布中国为汇率操纵国（那对所有人来说都将会是收获满满的一天）。当然，道理上他是对的，但是和你的最大债权国硬碰硬这个选择是否明智就是另一码事了。

But the second line is the unmanipulated dollar/euro rate which is pretty much back where it started the year. Of course, the yield gap between the two currencies has been the same all quarter. In confidence terms, sentiment improved towards both currencies in January and February (the US economy looked better while Italian and Spanish bond yields fell) only to deteriorate in recent weeks. Mr Derrick thinks the Spanish debt worries may break the logjam; the key measure is when a country's bond yields are 450 basis points above those of Germany's. Spain is not there yet, but a few bad days...

另一条似乎已回归年初起点的曲线则是美元/欧元汇率。当然，两种货币之间的收益差距整个季度里都相差不大。就市场信心方面来说，这两种货币的市场气氛在一二月份都有了改善，只在近几周有所恶化。（相比于意大利和西班牙的国债利率下降，美国的经济看起来还好一些）。德里克认为西班牙债务危机可能会打破僵局的关键指标是，何时西班牙的国债利率能超过德国450个基点。尽管西班牙还没达到这个指标，不过好日子也不多了。

We know that countries would like to export their way out of trouble and that, in a sluggish global economy, their best hope is to drive down their exchange rate. Since they can't all do that at once, that suggests the current calm in the currency markets is fleeting.

我们都知道各个国家都希望把他们的危机输出国外，在全球经济萧条的大背景下，最大的希望是调低自己的汇率。鉴于他们还没着手这么做，可以认为外汇市场的平静是暂时的。