纽约时报：进一步深入解读亚洲的通货膨胀

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纽约时报：进一步深入解读亚洲的通货膨胀

看你是到哪里去了解了，亚洲的通货膨胀可能是良性的，也可能已经病入膏肓了。三月份中国的通胀率保持在低于北京的4%的目标水平，并且显现出缓和的迹象，而韩国的通胀率则降到了20个月以来的新低。但是其他数据却显示价格压力实际上在上个月有所增加，而且工厂要为原材料支付更多的钱。

新加坡——看你是到哪里去了解了，亚洲的通货膨胀可能是良性的，也可能已经病入膏肓了。

The March inflation rate in China stayed below Beijing’s 4 percent target and appeared to be on a softening trajectory, and the South Korean rate dropped to a 20-month low. But other figures show that price pressures actually picked up last month and that factories paid more for raw materials.

三月份中国的通胀率保持在低于北京的4%的目标水平，并且显现出缓和的迹象，而韩国的通胀率则降到了20个月以来的新低。但是其他数据却显示价格压力实际上在上个月有所增加，而且工厂要为原材料支付更多的钱。

The disconnect stems from the way inflation is measured. The primary indicator in many Asian economies compares prices with those of a year earlier, not those of the previous month, as is common in the United States and Europe.

这样的分歧源于通货膨胀的衡量机制。亚洲许多经济体的通胀主要衡量指标是将价格和一年前的相比，而非前一个月的，而美国和欧洲都是通过和前一个月的数据对比。

That can be misleading.

这很可能造成误导。

Asian inflation looks tame now, largely because prices were high a year ago, when oil prices increased drastically because fighting in Libya threatened supplies, and shortages of pork and other food drove up costs.

亚洲的通货膨胀看起来似乎很温顺，主要是因为一年前的价格太高了，当时石油价格因为利比亚的战争威胁石油的供应而显著增高，而猪肉和其他食品的短缺抬高了价格。

Central bankers trying to calibrate interest rates need to know where prices are headed, not where they have been. Otherwise, they risk missing the warning signs of a build-up in inflation that will become only harder to contain.

中央银行想要调整利率就需要知道价格的走向是怎样的，而不是价格曾经到达什么水平。否则，他们会错过了通胀形成的信号之后通胀就会变得很难牵制。

“The month-on-month data gives you a better gauge of the inflation pulse, what’s happening right now,” said Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist for Nomura in Hong Kong. “I’m a little bit skeptical of looking too closely into the year-on-year numbers now.”

“月度数据能够给你一个掌握通胀脉搏的更好的标尺，让你知道现在正在发生着什么，”诺姆拉在香港的亚洲首席经济学家鲍勃.沙巴拉曼说道。“我现在仔细看那些年度数据的时候开始有些怀疑了。”

Each data set has its limitations.

每个数据组合都有它们的局限性。

Few of the statistics agencies in Asia adjust data for seasonal factors like the Lunar New Year, which distorts month-on-month readings in China and some neighboring economies every January and February.

少数亚洲的统计机构会去因为一些例如农历新年一样的季度因素而调整数据，而这扭曲了对中国及一些与其相邻的经济体在一二月份的月度数据的解读。

Comparing year with year solves that problem but introduces another set of concerns, including timeliness.

通过对比年度数据解决了这个问题，却带来了另一个问题，包括时间性。

Seasonal adjustment is notoriously difficult to get right. Some economists think the U.S. government mismeasured seasonal shifts in the labor market this winter, reporting an abnormally sharp drop in the jobless rate.

季度调整是出了名的很难弄对。一些经济学家认为美国政府错误的估计了今年冬天劳动力市场的季节替换，做出了一个失业率显著下降的报告。

Mr. Subbaraman of Nomura said he thought inflation would become a bigger problem for Asia this year. Rising commodity prices, easy monetary policy and tight labor markets suggest that as demand picks up, inflation will quickly follow.

诺姆拉的沙巴拉曼先生说他本来以为通货膨胀会成为今年亚洲的一个更大的麻烦。不断上涨的商品价格，宽松的货币政策和紧张的劳动力市场预示着需求一旦增加，通货膨胀便会随之而来。

The Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia both hold policy-setting meetings this week and are expected to keep rates steady, mindful of the inflation threat even though price pressures are subdued.

韩国银行和印尼银行这星期都召开了政策制定会议，并期望保持利率稳定，就算价格压力有所缓解也要对通胀威胁保持警惕。

China inflation numbers Monday were a case study in how confusing the data can be. The consumer price index rose 3.6 percent from the previous year, more than economists polled by Reuters had expected.

中国周一公布的通胀数据是一个研究这些数据可以有多让人困惑的绝佳案例。消费者价格指数相比去年上涨了3.6%，比路透社的经济学家们预测的要高。

But a measure of producer prices pointed the other way, dropping 0.3 percent from a year earlier.

但是生产者价格指数却展现了另外一面，该指数相较去年下降了0.3个百分点。

That suggests little inflationary pressure in the pipeline, because manufacturers would feel the effects of rising costs before consumers do.

这显示了通胀压力正在酝酿中，因为生产者会在消费者之前感觉到价格上涨的影响。

Yet the month-on-month figure showed the producer price index had risen 0.3 percent between February and March, which indicates price pressures may indeed be building.

虽然月度数据显示了二月份和三月份之间生产者价格指数上涨了0.3个百分点，这表明了价格压力或许真的在增加。

Because China does not seasonally adjust the data, it is hard to read too much into changes between February and March. The Lunar New Year fell in January this year, so prices for food and other holiday-related items rose drastically that month, then eased somewhat in February.

因为中国每月按月度调整该数据，所以很难去解读出二月和三月之间的变化。而农历新年是在今年的一月份，所以食品及其他和节日有关的物品的价格在那一个月急剧上涨，而在二月分开始有所缓解。

The pickup in March might have had more to do with the subsiding of prices in February.

而三月份的反弹也更多要归功于二月份的相对低迷。

Food was the primary driver behind the unexpected pickup in the March consumer price index, although, unlike the drivers a year ago, the main culprits were fruits and vegetables, not pork.

食品价格是三月份消费价格指数反弹的幕后主要推手，但是和去年有点不一样，这次的罪魁祸首是水果和蔬菜，而不是猪肉。

Vishnu Varathan, an Asia economist with Mizuho in Singapore, said he was alert for signs that inflation was re-emerging as a threat but saw little to fear in the Monday data. High pork prices persisted last year, but it takes longer to rear a pig than to grow a cabbage.

日本瑞穗银行在新加坡的亚洲经济学家Vishnu Varathan说他曾经警告了通胀作为一个威胁卷土重来的迹象，但是周一的数据看来似乎一点都不用害怕。去年猪肉价格持续高企，但是养一头猪花的时间要比种一颗白菜花的时间长。

“What we know about food inflation tells us there’s no reason to get distressed,” he said. “What we know about fuel inflation tells us there may be a problem but it hasn’t come home to roost yet.”

“我们对食品通胀的了解告诉我们没有必要因此而忧虑，”他说。“我们对燃料通胀的了解告诉我们可能有问题存在，但还没有物归原主。”

Mr. Varathan said he would be more worried about Asian inflation threat if conflict in the Middle East sent oil prices back up to the 2008 record high of about $150 per barrel.

Varathan先生说，他反而更担心亚洲的通胀威胁，如果中东的冲突将原油价格推上2008年的150美元一桶的历史高位的话。

Food and energy account for about 40 percent of the consumer price index basket in most Asian economies outside of Japan, so watching commodities provides the clearest window into where inflation is heading.

在日本以外的大多数亚洲国家里食品和能源的在消费价格指数中占有40%的权重，所以观察商品期货价格是看通货膨胀走向的最清楚的窗口。

Commodity prices also explain why the yearly inflation data clash with the month-on-month figures.

商品价格同样也解释了年度通胀数据和月度数据的冲突的原因。

The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index, a broad measure of commodity prices, fell as much as 15 percent from mid-March 2011 to mid-March 2012. But it was up 1.5 percent from mid-February to mid-March this year.

汤姆森Reuters-Jefferies CRB指数是应用广泛的商品价格衡量标准，在2011年3月中和2012年三月中一年间下降了15%之多。但是今年2月中到三月中之间却上涨了1.5%

Even more worrisome to some inflation watchers is how rising commodity prices seem to be filtering through the economy and ultimately into higher wages. The big worry is a wage-price spiral, with more expensive goods leading to higher wage demands, which in turn feed back into higher prices.

在一些通胀观察家看来，更让人担心的是上涨的商品价格不知怎么的被过滤了并最终变成了更高的工资。最大的担心来自工资和物价的恶性循环，更对的昂贵商品导致了更高的工资需求，而上涨的工资又拉高了物价。

China has been at the forefront of rising wages. Its latest five-year economic plan calls for an average annual minimum wage increase of 15 percent through 2015. Rival exporting economies may follow China’s lead, knowing that they can increase wages without losing their competitive edge.

中国处在工资上涨的最前线。其最新的经济五年规划要求到2015年，年度最低工资涨幅要达到15%。与其竞争的出口经济体会紧随中国，因为他们知道他们可以增加工资而不会丧失竞争优势。

Rahul Bajoria, an economist with Barclays in Singapore, pointed out that wage increases had been implemented or planned in Thailand, Malaysia and parts of Indonesia, supporting his view that inflation pressures were building.

巴克莱银行在新加坡的经济学家Rahul Bajoria指出涨工资在泰国、马来西亚和印度尼西亚已经实施或计划实施，这支持了他通胀压力正在聚集的论断。

“The trough in inflation is going to be a lot shallower than what we were earlier expecting,” Mr. Bajoria said. “You have to look beyond the headline and understand that the price dynamics are turning a bit more unfavorable.”

“通胀的低谷将会比我们预计的要浅的多，”Bajoria说。“你要看看头条，并理解价格驱动机制正变得越来越不利。”